Silly us X-Files fans trying to rationalize why The X-Files: I Want to Believe crashed and burned so badly this summer. It was too thoughtful! Too character-driven! Too focused on giving fans emotional closure, and not enough on slam-bang summer excitement! Long-time franchise producer Frank Spotnitz has a much easier and quicker answer: It was The Dark Knight's fault.

His theory goes thus: The X-Files opened a week after The Dark Knight broke all sorts of records and began its domination of the summer box office. What's more, the dark and brooding film was similar in tone to the caped juggernaut, and not the sort of counterprogramming that might nonetheless have had a chance in its wake. And so you get $21 million domestic.

Look, I'm probably as big a fan of I Want to Believe as you'll find around these parts; for fans of the show it was a lovely, moving conclusion. For fans of the show. The commercial problem with the film wasn't that it was too dark or that it followed The Dark Knight, but that it was too small, and its appeal too narrow. A bigger, flashier X-Files, with more explosions and flying saucers, would have done better, Batman notwithstanding. As it stood, people who didn't grow up on Mulder and Scully didn't see a reason to go. And -- speaking, again, as someone who loves the film -- they probably made the right choice. There wasn't much there for them.

Oh, and as to the possibility of another film that Spotnitz vaguely suggests: no thank you. This was a graceful, satisfying finale.

[via Movie City News]

After a couple of weeks off (I had a bad case of Twilight fever), Indie Winners returns with a look at the best-performing independent films at the box office this weekend. As Indie Spotlighter Eric D. Snider noted before the long holiday weekend began, precious few new releases have entered the marketplace recently, so let's focus on two that distinguished themselves financially.

1. Milk (Focus Features)
2. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)

Avoiding the fall festival circuit, and even drawing some criticism for not opening in time to possibly influence California's vote on Proposition 8, Gus Van Sant's Milk finally debuted to very strong numbers, earning $38,361 per screen (36) in 19 cities, according to estimates compiled by Box Office Mojo. Milk opened last Wednesday and has been riding a wave of critical acclaim (93% positive, per Rotten Tomatoes, including our own James Rocchi). It will expand its theater count over the next couple of weeks.

In contrast, Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire followed the fall festival circuit, generated glowing early word, and continues to perform well in (slightly) expanded release in its third week, scoring a per-screen average of $27,898 at 49 locations. Slumdog Millionaire also has received extremely positive reviews (92% at Rotten Tomatoes) and is likewise inspiring good word of mouth.

The old, if not profound, lesson? Specialty audiences have been responding to intelligent films that resonate emotionally, ones that sound different from the usual art house fare. Stars like Sean Penn and Josh Brolin may snare some viewers, but I'd bet it's the rousing treatment of important (and pertinent) subjects that drives Milk to a solid success as it expands. Lacking recognizable stars, Slumdog Millionaire definitely is building momentum because of its underdog tale and looks primed to be a crossover success.

I think critics should start boycotting the yearly Christmas Family Comedy. It's amazing: these movies are never good. I can't think of another distinct subgenre with such a poor track record over the last decade. And of course, I went and saw Four Christmases, of my own free will. I'm an idiot.

In any event, it was silly of me to imply that Four Christmases didn't have the muscle to win the weekend; high-profile Christmas movies almost always do well. The $31.7 million three-day is one of the best openings ever for a movie of this kind; last year's Fred Claus, also starring Vince Vaughn, only managed $18.5 million in early November. Four Christmases even squeaked out Elf. Its five-day gross was an impressive $46.7 million.

Australia, on the other hand: oh boy. Baz Luhrmann's ultra-expensive, ultra-long epic made $20 million over the five days, which is less than inspiring -- especially considering it has now basically exited the Oscar race. Luhrmann's Moulin Rouge! only ended up with around $57 million at the end of its domestic run -- but it didn't cost $130 million, either.

Transporter 3 -- the weekend's best new offering, for my money -- did okay with $12.3 million over three days and $18.5 over five. The three-day is a slight decline from what Transporter 2 did three years ago, but overall I'd put them even. This franchise continues to be profitable.

Twilight fell considerably, which isn't too surprising given the rabid-fan phenomenon that packs theaters opening weekend. Around $160 million is looking like the endgame. Meanwhile, Bolt, facing no new kid-centric competition over the weekend, held up almost miraculously well, actually gaining slightly over the three-day weekend. The folks at Disney have surely turned last weekend's frown upside down.

Slots 10 and 11 on the weekend's chart are occupied by limited releases: Milk and Slumdog Millionaire, on 36 and 49 screens, respectively. Their success bodes well for their Oscar chances.

The full five-day estimates after the jump.

What to make of Twilight's $70.5 million bow? Well, it's not quite Harry Potter, whose first-weekend outings have ranged from $77 million to $102. But when you consider that Twilight is basically a niche film -- certainly it has a lot less cross-demographic appeal than Harry Potter -- its success starts to seem pretty remarkable. Are there any teenage girls who didn't see it this weekend? And what will happen to it next weekend? All the fans may have seen Twilight already -- then again, many of the die-hards may grace it with repeat viewings. Given the incessant shrieking at the screening I attended, that wouldn't surprise me.

Disney's Bolt didn't take despite favorable reviews. The studio continues to have trouble getting its non-Pixar animated features off the ground as tentpoles. Its best go was Chicken Little three years ago; Bolt looks to land about on par with Meet the Robinsons. Disappointing.

What else. Quantum of Solace remains on track to be the top-grossing Bond film of all time. Just below the top 10, Slumdog Millionaire is riding a deserved wave of great word-of-mouth to a $31,000 per-screen average on 32 screens. It'll continue to expand in the coming weeks, and should hit the top 10 before long.

The full estimates after the jump.

It's being mentioned in a few of the box office reports showing up online, but we here at Cinematical felt it deserved its own post. In case you haven't noticed, Twilight's $70.5 million amounts to the best opening weekend for a female director ever. Not only did she break Mimi Leder's (Deep Impact) record of $41.1 million, but Twilight director Catherine Hardwicke destroyed it -- bringing her all the way up to the 29th best opening weekend in history (according to Box Office Mojo), slightly beating -- wait for it -- Michael Bay's Transformers by roughly $50 thousand on 600 less screens. I think this proved giant f**king robots are no match for millions of screaming girls.

But this isn't the only record Catherine Hardwicke could break. Our friends over at Over Thinking It pointed out that should Twilight gross more than $187 million domestic, the film will crack the top 100 grossing movies of all time (domestic) list. And if that happens, Hardwicke will become the first female live action American director to crack the holy top 100. I'm sure there's a bunch of other weird little records in there, but I failed math back in the day and I'm probably not the guy you want adding things up.

While this is a great achievement for Hardwicke and women filmmakers, however, there's this quote from a recent study conducted by Dr. Martha Lauzen of San Diego State University (via OTI): "Women accounted for 6% of directors in 2007, a decline of one percentage point since 2006. This figure is almost half the percentage of women directors working in 2000 when women accounted for 11% of all directors." Not good. Hopefully Hardwicke's fantastic opening will help open some eyes ...

Check out our interview with Twilight director Catherine Hardwicke over here.

The numbers just rolled in, and it looks like Twilight has grabbed a whopping $70.5 million in its opening weekend, slightly above earlier estimates of $45-65 million. For a film catered more toward young female audiences, these numbers are pretty damn impressive -- especially since these sorts of openings are usually reserved for big-budgeted action/superhero blockbusters featuring big names and lots of explosions. Twilight, however, starred the relatively unknown indie hopper Kristen Stewart and equally-as-unknown Robert Pattinson -- both of whom will no doubt return for the sequel, which was officially announced yesterday. Despite the Twilight army, Disney's Bolt still managed to squeeze out $27 million for third place, while Quantum of Solace dropped to second place with $27.4 million.

We'll have a full box office report tomorrow morning. Let us ask you this, though: Are you surprised at Twilight's $70 million take, or did you expect the film to make more?

Based on some comments on my box office post and on Scott's review of Quantum of Solace, people want to talk about this. I want to talk about it too. So would someone who saw Quantum over the weekend please explain to me why this random action movie was released under the "James Bond" banner?

You know, there was that scene in Casino Royale where Bond, asked if he would like his vodka-martini shaken or stirred, replies: "Does it look like I give a damn?" At the time I -- and most others, it seemed -- thought this was actually pretty cool, part of Bond's facelift for the new millennium. The franchise retained its essence in that terrific film, but Bond was a little different: a little grittier, a little tougher, a little less studied and exaggerated in his suaveness. Besides, this was supposed to be a prequel. Bond is still learning the attitude and affectations that will eventually make him Bond, James Bond. Not to mention the fact that he ordered that martini after losing a fortune in poker.

After watching Quantum, I think back to the Casino Royale martini scene, and I'm dispirited. Because the truth is, his one petulant outburst aside, James Bond does care how he takes his martini. And I'm worried that the people behind this new, fantastically successful incarnation of the franchise really -- wrongly -- believe that he doesn't.

The week you Twilight fans have been waiting for has finally arrived, and in just a few days from now entire worlds will collide! Yup, I'm talking about civilized people who decided to skip on over to see Quantum of Solace in its second week versus TWILIGHT FANS GALORE! Tons of screaming pre-teen girls and their equally-as-obsessed mothers storming movie theaters across the country, demanding their Bella, their Edward ... their blood!

We kid, but it's always fun to ponder how well a hotly-anticipated film will do in its opening weekend. Could Twilight beat Quantum of Solace's $70 million take? Is that even possible? Or does the Twilight fanbase appear larger than it really is? When it's all said and done, what if Twilight fails to top $40 million in its opening weekend? Would that be considered a failure? And if not, what would be considered a failure? If Twilight doesn't meet a certain number at the box office this weekend, could those three Twilight sequels currently in development be in jeopardy? So many questions, so many different possibilities -- how well do you think Twilight will do this weekend?

For a franchise that's more than 45 years old, Bond is on one hell of a kick. Ever since Pierce Brosnan took over in 1995, every James Bond film has grossed more than the last, and that trend will continue with Quantum of Solace. The awkwardly-titled 22nd film in the franchise beat the previous Bond opening weekend record -- held, actually, by Die Another Day, which was eventually passed by Casino Royale later in its release -- by, oh, $23 million. Quantum's $70.4 million bow is also the third highest opening of 2008, behind only Iron Man, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and The Dark Knight.

And that, actually, is pretty much all there is to report for the wide releases, since Quantum of Solace scared everyone else off the date. Last weekend's winners, Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa and Role Models both held up well, with the former pulling ahead of Wall-E. The Secret Life of Bees hangs around at #8, proving to be a fall sleeper. Saw V will, as expected, finish just behind its immediate predecessor.

The full list of estimates, after the jump.

When Red Cliff (Part 1) rolled out across most of Asia in July, John Woo's historical action epic generated very good box office returns, and its recent release in Japan continues the trend. Topping the charts for the second week in a row, according to Variety, Red Cliff has earned more than $18 million so far.

Part 2 of the four-hour plus Red Cliff is due for January release in Asia, and an international (i.e. short) version is also being prepped for the beginning of the year. Theatrical distribution deals are set in Europe (France, Finland, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, and Norway), with Summit Entertainment (distributor of Twilight and Sex Drive) handling international sales.

Still, no US distribution deal has been announced. What's holding things up? Will Summit take it on? Will North American audiences ever get to set Red Cliff on the big screen, where it clearly belongs? Or are distributors spooked by the prospect of marketing one more foreign-language action epic?

Red Cliff is based on the classic novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms; the title refers to the location of a battle involving more than a million soldiers that brought an end to the Han Dynasty in 208 AD, resulting in the division of China into three kingdoms. Tony Leung Chiu-Wai (Lust, Caution), Takeshi Kaneshiro (House of Flying Daggers), Zhang Fengyi (The Emperor and the Assassin), Chang Chen (Blood Brothers), and Lin Chiling (gorgeous Taiwanese model in her acting debut) star.

This weekend's success stories:
1. The Boy in the Striped Pajamas (Miramax)
2. JCVD (Peace Arch)
3. I've Loved You So Long (Sony Classics)

The critical consensus on Mark Herman's concentration camp children's tale The Boy in the Striped Pajamas dropped a bit over the weekend (from 71% positive to 62% at Rotten Tomatoes), which didn't keep it from scoring a big win at the box office. Opening at 17 theaters, Striped Pajamas earned an estimated $15,000 per screen, according to Box Office Mojo. If you saw Striped Pajamas this weekend, are you recommending it to your friends? Is the holiday season the right time for a sober drama with (reportedly) a devastating climax?

Gotham moviegoers ignored minority sniping from several major publications and gave the reinvigorated Jean-Claude Van Damme a chance, rewarding Mabrouk El Mechri's action / comedy / drama JCVD with $23,300 in total estimated returns at the two theaters where it opened. JCVD is too self-satisfied and drenched in style for my taste, but Van Damme is great fun to watch and the film itself overcomes its limitations to deliver an entertaining experience. Are you planning to see it when it opens near you, or will you wait for the DVD?

Kristen Scott Thomas reportedly gives an award-worthy performance in Philippe Claudel's French-language family drama I've Loved You So Long. In its third week of release, the film saw an increase of 54.6% in earnings, despite adding just two theaters (still not in my area). That indicates very positive word-of-mouth recommendations. If you've seen it and encouraged others to see it, what in particular moved you or touched you? Was it because Thomas is good in it? Or is it just a strong movie overall?

When filling out the box office chart that's below the fold, I accidentally mistyped Madagascar as Badagascar. I didn't mean it. Of this decade's slew of random non-Pixar talking-animal cartoons, Madagascar and Happy Feet are far and away the best, so I'm glad that the former, at least, is now a bona fide franchise. (There were rumors of a second Happy Feet, but that project seems to have stalled.) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa opened to a huge $63.5 million this weekend, a $16 million improvement on its 2005 predecessor. Animated films' staying power is unpredictable (though generally stronger than average), but $175 million seems assured and $250 million is not out of the question.

Role Models' $19 million opening is less ginormous, but no less notable. For an R-rated comedy with no real stars and no franchise behind it, that's a major coup. I suspect word-of-mouth will help the film in the weeks to come.

Soul Men, on the other hand, failed to capitalize on the cache of Samuel L. Jackson and the late Bernie Mac. Black audiences would have turned out in droves for the feel-good comedy. Lionsgate would have gone to town with it.

With last weekend's box office hit on account of Halloween falling on Friday, this weekend's drop figures -- save Saw V's -- looked pretty good across the board. Most notably, people seem to be responding well to Clint Eastwood's Changeling, which held on to fourth place without much of a screen count jump.

The full estimates after the jump.

If you lived in England, you could have seen Quantum of Solace, like, six times already. Did you know that? How does it make you feel? Is it inappropriate, at this historic juncture, to say that I'm kind of outraged about this? Worse: it will open in fifty-seven (57) new markets this week, while we wait for November 14th. Casino Royale opened in a few countries a day or two ahead, which was mildly pride-rankling, but this is ridiculous.

My (largely tongue-in-cheek) America-centrism aside, Quantum of Solace made $39 million last weekend in the U.K., France and Sweden. According to Variety, that's comfortably a record for a film opening in so few territories. In the U.K. alone, Quantum topped Casino Royale's first-weekend take by 35%.

In America (U-S-A! U-S-A!), Casino Royale opened to $40.8 million around the same time of year in 2006. A UK-type spike domestically would put Quantum at around $55 million in two weeks, which actually seems about right. Casino Royale came on the heels of a bunch of Pierce Brosnan installments that many people considered middling (though I should note that the series' grosses nonetheless rose steadily through the Brosnan years). Bond is back now, and everyone knows it. Quantum of Solace will be the biggest Bond yet.

The day before opening, I made an educated guess that we'd see a sing-along incarnation of High School Musical 3: Senior Year soon enough. However, while I thought that Disney might go for the relatively open weekends of November 14th or December 5th, last week's 65% drop in business suggests that repeat viewing has already somewhat exhausted itself and that the studio better milk their cash cow dry a bit sooner, so on November 7th, the lyric-laden version of HSM3 will pop up in 125 digital theaters nationwide.

There's something to be said for the digital aspect of this release. Though I have friends and colleagues who still cheer 35mm all the way, to dismiss the merits of digital projection -- whether in this or better cases -- seems downright foolish. Who knows: with any luck, we'll be treated to a digital release of Saw School Musical come next October...

If you woke up this Saturday and looked at the box office returns from Friday, you probably noticed something strange. Saw V was cheerfully occupying the top spot despite having slid a whopping 78% from the previous Friday. Last weekend's winner, High School Musical 3, was sitting at number five with $1.7 million, a 90% drop. Ninety percent? What the hell is going on here?

Then you probably thought about it for a second and palm-smacked your forehead. Friday, of course, was October 31st, which meant that virtually all of HSM's target audience was out trick-or-treating. Some comparatively smaller percentage of Saw fans was out partying, or whatever it is the kids are doing these days. HSM recovered admirably, leapfrogging back into first, but Halloween still hurt: that 65% drop isn't great for a kidflick, though it's more in line with the pattern of eagerly awaited franchise sequels. We'll see what happens next week.

As for Saw V, it's currently running about $5 million behind its immediate predecessor, although the Halloween Friday took its toll here too -- it's probably fair to call them even at this point. Even if Saw V continues the franchise's declining trend, it's still a cash cow. My guess is we'll see a couple more theatrical sequels, and then infinite direct-to-DVD entries. Jigsaw will never die.

There were some newcomers. Zack and Miri Make a Porno's $10.7 million take was roughly in line with Kevin Smith's best showings; only 2001's Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back fared better, and barely at that. (It's probably worth noting that this is also by far the worst opening for a film starring Seth Rogen.) Changeling respectably, if unspectacularly, expanded to 1,850 screens, landing in fourth with $9.4 million. That would be more auspicious if the film were expected to be an awards player, but that doesn't seem to be the case. The Haunting of Molly Hartley, a horror offering for the tween set, actually managed an okay $6 million -- not bad when you don't even have a real distributor.

The full estimates after the jump.